Change Context Scan

Before you announce a change, look honestly at what people are already carrying, who will really back it and whether the timing works, so you can launch, reshape or wait on evidence instead of on enthusiasm.

Practice, not research: Kotter's steps and accelerators (Kotter, 1995; Kotter, 2014), the change equation (Beckhard & Harris, 1977) and the burning platform (Conner, 1993) are practitioner tools with limited direct testing. The scales on this page are rules of thumb.

Use it when:

• You are about to launch a change and want to know whether the timing and support are really there.
• A sponsor is pushing for a fast start and you need a fair way to say "not yet" or "smaller first".
• A change is already under way and the conditions have shifted since you planned it.

Skip it when:

• Your question is how much change one group carries across all initiatives: use 3.22 Change Load & Fatigue Check.
• You already know the ground is ready and need to win people over: go to 3.10 Case for Change Page and 3.8 Resistance & Support Map.

The claim behind this scan is that change efforts often stall not because the plan is wrong but because the ground was not ready: urgency nobody feels, sponsors who spend no capital, people already saturated with other changes. Kotter's (1995) account of why transformations fail is the best known version of that diagnosis, later recast as eight accelerators. It is consulting practice, widely used and little tested as a whole. The change equation tradition (Beckhard & Harris, 1977) and the burning platform image (Conner, 1993) are practitioner heuristics too: their formulas are unproven, but the habit they force, an honest look at conditions before committing, is sensible.

So this page asks about load and capacity first, because capacity is usually the binding constraint, and then uses the accelerators as a checklist, not a law. Your own organization's track record is often the best evidence you have. The limit: a scan cannot make conditions ready; it can only tell you to adjust or wait.

Describe the change in one sentence, then list the changes the same people have absorbed in the past year or are absorbing now.

Strong answer: "Move the packing line from paper shift lists to a scheduling app, affecting 60 operators and four shift leads (illustrative)." Then: "New hygiene audit routine since spring; still being learned on night shift." Not: "Digitalization."

The change, in one sentence:

Who it touches (groups and rough numbers):

When the go decision must be made:

Illustrative example: the roles, the organization and all numbers are made up.

The production manager at a Danish dairy cooperative's packing plant wants to replace paper shift lists with a scheduling app.

Step 1: 60 operators and four shift leads. Already absorbing a new hygiene audit routine, still shaky on night shift.

Step 2: Shift leads rated Low: two covered extra shifts every week last month. Sponsor: the plant manager, who has already moved go-live off the peak season.

Step 3: Urgency Somewhat (shift leads feel the swap chaos; day operators do not). Supporters Yes (two respected night operators asked for the app). Vision Yes. Barriers Somewhat (older phones on the floor). Early win Yes: shift swaps approved the same day.

Step 4: Wrong time: summer temps start in June. The last tool failed because it launched with no one on the floor to help.

Step 5: Go with adjustments. Day shift first, after the temps leave, with a shift lead freed to help for the first week. The two night operators test it first. The manager adds the information and consultation steps with the employee representatives to the timeline. Rescan 1 September.